We're back for another smaller slate of only 4 games on this Thursday night. There are some good-looking matchups tonight, so let's waste no time here and dive right into some of our favorite plays for tonight!
DALLAS MAVERICKS vs. BROOKLYN NETS
(DAL -3 | o/u 225)
G: Luka Doncic (DK: $12,000; FD: $12,000)
Luka Magic. The most expensive player on this slate. That price tag is HEFTY, so if it drives you away, I'd understand, but Luka is averaging over 60 FP so far this season and faces a BKN defense that was 2nd in PTS, 7th in 3PM, and 8th in REB given up to PGs last season; and so far this season they're 8th in PTS given up to PGs. He's got the matchup, it's up to you if you want to pay up for him.
G: Spencer Dinwiddie (DK: $5,500; FD: $5,000)
There's a lot of value here with Dinwiddie's price tag facing a BKN defense that has been terrible against SGs this season (4th in PTS and 1st in 3PM given up). Also, throw in the fact that this is Dinwiddie's old stomping grounds. In one game with DAL against BKN last season, he produced 35+ FP, so I expect solid output for Dinwiddie tonight with all the attention on Luka.
F/C: Christian Wood (DK: $7,500; FD: $8,200)
Still too cheap for the 2nd best player on this DAL team. Wood is averaging around 40 FP per game this season and his minutes have slowly increased each game. He faces a BKN defense that is 6th in PTS, 10th in REB, 1st in AST, and 8th in 3PM to Cs this season. He's started this season on a tear and I expect that to continue.
C: JaVale McGee (DK: $3,600; FD: $4,500)
For the same reasons I listed for Wood, McGee is in line for a favorable matchup. While he plays limited minutes and is a riskier option, he averages over 15 FP per game this season and if he can get hot early, his price tag is super low.
F: Kevin Durant (DK: $10,000; FD: $9,700)
KD has been potentially the most consistent fantasy player so far this season. He pretty much puts up 47 FP in each game and tonight he faces a DAL defense that is 8th in PTS and 6th in 3PM given up to PFs so far this season. He's still the #1 guy on this BKN squad and I expect him to do his best to go toe-to-toe with Luka tonight.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
(LAC -6.5 | o/u 218)
G: Shai Gilegous-Alexander (DK: $9,300; FD: $10,300)
Not too much to say here. SGA is the #1 guy on this OKC team by a mile and has a favorable matchup against an LAC team that he just torched a couple nights ago. Price tag is a bit hefty, but worth it in my opinion.
G: Tre Mann (DK: $5,600; FD: $5,400)
Even if Tre Mann doesn't quite blow up like the game he just had against LAC, his price tag is still too low for a guy with a 27.6% usage rate last game.
G: John Wall (DK: $5,400; FD: $5,300)
While it's looking like Paul George will be back, there is still no Kawhi in sight. This season, Wall averages a 32.7% (!) usage rate in only 21.7 MPG. I expect him to get his minutes bumped up if George plays because I think Ty Lue was being cautious last game with his stars out. Wall averages 25 FP per game in only 21 MPG, so for his still-cheap price tag, I expect him to break value.
G/F: Paul George (DK: $9,400; FD: $9,000)
Like I said above, it's looking like PG13 will suit up tonight. He'll face an OKC defense that was 3rd in PTS, 3rd in 3PM, and 2nd in REB given up to SFs last season. In one game versus OKC last season, George torched the Thunder for over 60 FP. As long as he plays, he'll be the #1 guy for this LAC squad.
F/C: Nicolas Batum (DK: $4,200; FD: $4,200) OR F/C: Robert Covington (DK: $4,800; FD: $4,900)
Choose your fighter with this one. Both have an exceptional amount of value for their prices and should see more minutes with Morris and Kawhi still sitting. They'll be facing an OKC defense that was 7th in PTS, 5th in 3PM, and 1st in REB given up to PFs last season; and they're 10th in PTS, 2nd in AST, and 2nd in 3PM to PFs this season. Batum put up 17+ FP in 18 MIN and RoCo put up 25+ FP in 21 MIN last game. You could roll with either here.
F: Kenrich Williams (DK: $3,800; FD: $3,900)
So, so much value here with Kenrich. He's still under $4,000 and is starting at PF for an injured OKC team. He just produced 22+ FP against LAC last game and faces their defense that was 10th in PTS and 3rd in REB given up. Too cheap to not give a look.
C: Ivica Zubac (DK: $6,500; FD: $6,500)
Zubac has started this season on a roll, averaging over 30 FP per game this season. He also just lit up OKC's frontcourt for over 40 FP. Facing an OKC defense that is 5th in PTS, 1st in REB, and 2nd in AST given up to Cs this season and was 1st in REB given up last season, Zubac is still too cheap to not continue riding with him.
MIAMI HEAT vs. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
(GSW -6.5 | o/u 227)
G: Klay Thompson (DK: $5,600; FD: $5,900)
I know Klay has been off to a slow start this season, but his price tag has fallen too low for a guy with his potential. He faces a MIA defense that was 10th in PTS and 5th in 3PM given up to SGs last season and with most of the attention on Steph, Klay should be able to get his looks.
F: Andrew Wiggins (DK: $6,900; FD: $7,900)
Arguably the 2nd best player on this Warriors squad, Wiggins is averaging 40+ fantasy points per game this season. He faces a MIA defense that is 2nd in PTS and 10th in REB this season. He's still fairly cheap, especially on DK, so grab him while he's hot.
F/C: Draymond Green (DK: $5,700; FD: $6,100)
Dray has been up-and-down to start this season, but at this price tag against a MIA defense that is 7th in PTS and 4th in REB given up to PFs this season, Draymond should be able to do what he does best. In 1 game against MIA last season, he produced over 40 FP. Catch these Warriors while their prices are so low.
F: Caleb Martin (DK: $4,600; FD: $4,100)
Martin exploded for a big game last night against the Blazers and tonight he faces another favorable matchup against GSW who is 4th in PTS, 8th in REB, and 3rd in AST given up to PFs this season. In 1 game as a starter for MIA last season against GSW, Martin produced 38 FP. He has a ton of value at this price tag right now.
C: Bam Adebayo (DK: $7,300; FD: $7,000)
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES vs. SACRAMENTO KINGS
(MEM -2.5 | o/u 236.5)
G: Ja Morant (DK: $10,200; FD: $10,600)
This man has been unstoppable this season. Ja has been on another planet and faces a SAC defense that is 4th in PTS and 1st in 3PM given up to PGs this season. I have zero problem paying up for Ja at the rate he is playing.
G/F: Desmond Bane (DK: $7,000; FD: $7,400)
Bane just lit up the Nets for a career game. While he may not quite reach that output he just produced, he faces a SAC defense that was 1st in PTS, 3rd in 3PM, and 6th in REB given up to SGs last season. He found his stroke last game and I expect him to try and ride that hot hand against the Kings.
G/F: Dillon Brooks (DK: $5,300; FD: $5,000)
Dillon Brooks looked horrendous offensively against the Nets last game, but I expect him to find his rhythm against a weak SAC defense that is 3rd in PTS and 2nd in REB given up to SFs this season. With this projected to be a very high-scoring outing, there should be enough shots to go around.
G: Kevin Huerter (DK: $4,900; FD: $5,300)
Huerter has been off to a very solid start this season and faces a MEM defense that is 1st in PTS and 5th in 3PM given up to SGs this season. For this super low price tag, you have to look at Huerter who has already found his groove in this new SAC offense.
G: De'Aaron Fox (DK: $8,700; FD: $8,800)
Another guy who has just been off to an INSANE start this season. Fox is averaging almost 49 FP per game so far and faces a MEM defense that is 2nd in REB and 6th in AST given up to PGs this season. He's still under $9,000 and I expect him to want to match whatever Ja does tonight.
C: Steven Adams (DK: $5,400; FD: $5,500)
Steven Adams is one of those players that gets better when the team is healthier. He's an underrated playmaking big and can use that to his advantage with Ja, Bane, and Brooks all playing. He faces a SAC defense that was 9th in PTS, 2nd in REB, and 6th in AST given up to Cs last season. Adams averaged 30+ FP against SAC last season, so for his price tag, I expect solid production from the big man.
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BOBBY'S BEST BETS
Mavericks (-3)
Nets are playing a back to back. The only injury of note for the Nets is Joe Harris (ankle) who has been ruled out. Dallas, so far leads most stat categories except for rebounds per game and blocks per game and boasts an efficiency score 23 PTS better than the Nets. I like the Mavericks -3.
Thunder (+6.5)
The Clippers are the better team here on paper, but as of now Kawhi is out and Paul George is a game time decision. OKC took the first game against LAC 108-94. OKC is better than LAC so far this year in PPG, APG, RPG, FG% and posts a better efficiency than LAC. If Paul George played it MIGHT change the outcome but either way I’ll take OKC +6.5.
Warriors (-6.5)
There are no notable injuries to report for this game so it’s a legit Heat vs. Warriors matchup. The Warriors are coming off of an embarrassing 105-134 loss to the Suns on Tuesday and looking to rebound. So far this season the Warriors have put up scores of 123, 123, 130, and 105. The Heat have scored more than 110 twice during 5 games. The Warriors are the stronger team here so I like them at -6.5.
Kings (+2.5)
This is an interesting matchup. The Kings come into this matchup 0-3 but are statistically better than Memphis is every category except free throw %. It’s hard to bet against a Ja Morant team especially when they’re playing someone who’s 0-3 but I’m taking the Kings at +2.5.
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That's all for tonight's small slate of games! There's plenty of value with some cheaper options tonight, but there's also some superstars that should be in your lineups as well. We're sorry this week has been thin with the podcast episodes, but we should have the fourth episode up by tomorrow morning to focus on the big slate of games for Friday. We'll keep you updated on Twitter (@3inKeyPod)! Please share your lineups, bets, etc. with us on Twitter; we'd love to interact more with you all! We hope our advice has helped you win some money and we will continue to do our absolute best to provide you all with the best analysis possible! With all that being said, best of luck everyone!
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